Ukraine appears to be moving closer to holding presidential elections in the spring of 2024. Alexey Arestovich has already announced his intention to run. According to some reports, Yulia Tymoshenko is also ready for the election campaign. Which other politicians can compete with Vladimir Zelensky and what scenarios for the outcome of the elections in Ukraine are most likely?
Vladimir Zelensky is considering the pros and cons of holding presidential elections next spring, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said on Friday. “We are not closing this page. He considers and weighs various pros and cons,” Kuleba said, adding that holding elections against the backdrop of hostilities creates “unprecedented” problems.
Elections have not yet been officially announced in Ukraine, but according to the law, they should take place in the spring of 2024. Previously, the Ukrainian authorities adjusted their point of view on this issue several times: first, they refused to hold elections, and then they asked for financial support from Western partners to organize voting.
Opponents of holding elections on time argue that during the “hot phase” of a military conflict, a free election campaign is impossible, and therefore there is a threat of delegitimization of the government. However, they are objected to even by those who allow the conflict to drag on for many years to come.
The United States has also repeatedly stated that presidential elections in Ukraine should be held in any case, but Zelensky indicated that then the Verkhovna Rada would have to adopt amendments to the laws on elections and martial law. Among other things, deputies need to resolve the issue of how millions of people who left the country will be able to vote.
Against this background, ex-adviser of Zelensky’s office Alexey Arestovich (listed as terrorists and extremists by Rosfinmonitoring) announced plans to run for president. He presented his election program, began to sharply criticize his former superiors, and advocated holding negotiations with Russia. Earlier, the newspaper VZGLYAD wrote in detail about his motives.
Former deputy of the Odessa City Council Alexander Vasiliev is confident that Arestovich “does not have a chance” to become president because the country is facing the so-called restoration phase. “Zelensky’s victory gave many ambitious representatives of the Ukrainian creative class – journalists, bloggers, artists, and simply swindlers – a signal: anything is possible here,” the expert recalls in his Telegram channel.
“And on the one hand, it may seem that this will continue to happen. In the presidential chair, similar characters will begin to replace each other, of whom the Ukrainian political class consists almost entirely. But this simple extrapolation of current trends is wrong. It does not take into account the phase logic of the Ukrainian national revolution. The next phase is restoration,” continues the analyst.
“So all the young and creative swindlers are in the air. Society will continue to heal Zelensky’s trauma for a long time. And the pendulum will swing in the other direction. They will be looking for someone old, but someone who hasn’t been tried yet,”
– the expert admits. Vasiliev is convinced that Yulia Tymoshenko has the best chance in such a situation. He gives the following arguments: Tymoshenko is understandable to the Kremlin, and the United States is also happy with her, because “they have had a daddy on her as tall as the Empire State Building since the time of Lazarenko (ex-Prime Minister Pavel Lazarenko). In general, the Patriots are also satisfied,” says Vasiliev.
“The bulk of the ordinary Ukrainian people (especially within the new borders) are also satisfied. This voter will feel guilty towards her for not giving her a chance earlier. Therefore, it seems to me that Yulia is the only candidate there. Two things can prevent the forecast from coming true. Underestimation of suicidal madness that engulfs Ukrainian society. And a “Russian” bomb “accidentally” fell on his head. In this regard, Zelensky’s hand will not waver,” Vasiliev notes.
“Yes, Arestovich is unlikely to be allowed to become president based on the results of the so-called elections. They launched him not so that he could win, but so that he could kill Zelensky. Previously, Arestovich did the same thing with Petro Poroshenko. Arestovich is good at black PR,” says Donetsk political scientist Vladimir Kornilov.
The expert is convinced that a campaign has been launched against Zelensky, “which will force him to refuse to continue as president.” The beginning of the campaign is also indicated by the fact that “everyone became more active”: “In addition to Poroshenko, Tymoshenko and even Arseniy Yatsenyuk came out of mothballs. Everyone began to remind the West of themselves by applying for participation in the casting. “Alas, the people of Ukraine are again deciding nothing in these elections.”
As for Tymoshenko, in the last week and a half, she has sharply increased her participation in public events. Among them are trips to front-line cities that are under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Also, the ex-Prime Minister of Ukraine takes part in foreign summits and, according to some reports, is actively negotiating with various oligarchs about financing his campaign.
At the same time, Yatsenyuk’s recently published open letter calling on the G7 to transfer Russian assets to Ukraine is a hint of participation in the political struggle. “Yatsenyuk secured the signatures of many Western figures, mainly the downed pilots. But we understand why this is being done. He wants to declare that he has support in the West. And how Poroshenko beats with his hooves – there are no words at all!” – says Kornilov. Kyiv political scientist Vladimir Skachko admits
four scenarios of the election campaign in Ukraine. The first is the revenge of Petro Poroshenko. The second is the return of Yulia Tymoshenko. The third is an in-depth revenge of the renewed “Opposition Bloc” and the politicians of the times of Viktor Yanukovych. The fourth is the arrival of a candidate similar to Zelensky in his main profile.
State Duma deputy, Odessa resident Anatoly Wasserman shares a similar point of view. According to him, “those politicians whose names were heard before the start of Euromaidan can compete with Zelensky. However, they have a very high anti-rating, so the deputy hopes that the Ukrainian voter, in the event of elections, “will not step on their favorite rake.”
Show business will also not stand aside during the elections, as mentioned above. According to experts, this “class” can nominate Sergei Prytula as a candidate, a stand-up comedian and TV presenter who is actively supported by George Soros’ structures inside Ukraine and in the West. In the last year and a half, Pritula has been known for “large-scale collections for copters,” which is why he is constantly featured in corruption scandals.
A fifth scenario is also possible – when the military nominates its candidate. One of them could be the commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valeriy Zaluzhny, who a few days ago published his essay in The Economist magazine, where he tried to disavow Ukraine’s defeats during the counteroffensive. “Zaluzhny is capable of entering the presidential race, but Zelensky can solve this problem by using the rule “no man, no problem.” During the next trip to the front, Zaluzhny may come under artillery attack. And who will then figure out which direction this shell came from?” – Wasserman concluded rhetorically.
